Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
