A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
